My predictions: 3/5, missing “500 Days of Summer” and “The Hangover”Who’s missing: “A Serious Man”
So much for my theory that 500 Days of Summer and The Hangover wouldn’t be legitimate contenders. I guess it’s good to just have fun every once in a while, and I think that a loosening up of members is a positive thing. What’s completely inexplicable is the snub of “A Serious Man,” especially after the Coen Brothers’ much inferior “Burn After Reading” was nominated last year and star Michael Stuhlbarg made it in for Best Actor. It’s puzzling and unfortunate, but hopefully it will still be able to earn a Best Picture nod at the Oscars. The other three nominees aren’t much of a surprise: one film starring lots of ladies, Nine, and two films starring the same lady, It’s Complicated and Julie & Julia. I still have yet to see two of these films, but I’ll make sure to watch them soon in order to have a better perspective on this category.
Who could win? I think that Nine is the clear frontrunner.
What does this mean for the Oscar race? It’s devastating for “A Serious Man,” which has now fallen behind “Avatar” as one of the films fighting for the tenth slot. “Nine” is in good shape, and this is helpful for “500 Days of Summer” and “The Hangover,” both of which probably won’t contend but might have a chance now.
I honestly don't think Nine is as safe as it looks for Oscars. Look at the reviews so far. There are only 16 of them on Rotten Tomatoes right now, but a 31% is not a good sign. With a field of ten, who knows, but I'd say the reviews may hurt this film's chances, and while the Globes tend to have nominees with rotten scores, the winners are usually Fresh. Maybe the reviews for Nine will pick up, but for now, that's not a good sign. As for "A Serious Man", it got in at the Critics Choice, it was named at the NBR for Original Screenplay, and it could do well with SAG. Let's not jump the gun on its chances yet.
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