Golden Globe Musings: Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anyone important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
AMY ADAMS, DOUBT
PENELOPE CRUZ, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
VIOLA DAVIS, DOUBT
MARISA TOMEI, THE WRESTLER
KATE WINSLET, THE READER

This year’s pool:
Undoubtedly the one to beat in this race, and the only one sure to secure a slot, is Mo’Nique (Precious). Buzz about her costar Mariah Carey (Precious) seems silly to me, but it could certainly happen at the Globes, where Tom Cruise of all people was nominated for his preposterous cameo in “Tropic Thunder.” Two other films present multiple contenders, and I doubt either film will have more than one nominee. Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air) are both unfamiliar to accolades, whereas the incredible lineup of Nicole Kidman, Judi Dench, Sophia Loren, and Penelope Cruz (Nine) are very well-versed in acceptance speeches. Four-time nominee Julianne Moore (A Single Man) is a likely bet, while breakout French actress Melanie Laurent (Inglorious Basterds) might be able to break through at this international awards ceremony. The contenders beyond that have slim hopes. Susan Sarandon and Rachel Weisz (The Lovely Bones) may have small roles in their films, but Sarandon might end up with a nod akin to Shirley MacLaine’s a few years ago for “In Her Shoes,” a salute to a respected actress who keeps turning in solid supporting work. Marion Cotillard (Public Enemies) and Patricia Clarkson (Whatever Works) saw their films released in the first half of the year, and both disappeared quite quickly, probably too fleetingly to have caught anyone’s attention. Samantha Morton (The Messenger) could have a chance if anyone sees her film, and in a perfect world, Kerry Condon (The Last Station) would be here if anyone notices her in her film. One last minute contender who could factor in is Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart) if the film is as strong as people say, but is she a lead?

Predicted nominees:
MARIAH CAREY, PRECIOUS
PENELOPE CRUZ, NINE
ANNA KENDRICK, UP IN THE AIR
JULIANNE MOORE, A SINGLE MAN
MO’NIQUE, PRECIOUS