Golden Globe Musings: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Golden Globe nominations for this year will be announced in just a few weeks, so here’s a survey of the contenders and the most likely predictions at this time. Weigh in with your thoughts, and let me know if I’ve left off anyone important. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is still a bit early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

Last year’s nominees:
ANNE HATHAWAY, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
ANGELINA JOLIE, CHANGELING
MERYL STREEP, DOUBT
KRISTIN SCOTT THOMAS, I’VE LOVED YOU SO LONG
KATE WINSLET, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

This year’s pool:
The biggest lock in this category is Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), whose breakout role is exactly the kind of performance the Golden Globes will want to recognize. Next up is the charming young actress Carey Mulligan (An Education), though I think the film should be classified as a comedy. Rising star Abbie Cornish (Bright Star) is a likely contender if people remember her film. The 2006 victor in this category, Helen Mirren (The Last Station), should be back for another round. Another 2006 nominee, Penelope Cruz (Broken Embraces), has another Spanish-language performance in a movie from director Pedro Almodovar which might please voters. Her film tanked with critics, but Hilary Swank (Amelia) is a two-time winner, and past Globe favorite Jodie Foster made the list in 2007 for a poorly-received film (The Brave One). Two-time Best Comedy Actress nominee Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side) is being touted as a contender, but I really don’t see it, and she has a much better shot in her familiar category this year. Though she’s in a tiny film, Tilda Swinton (Julia) is a past nominee in this category, for “The Deep End” in 2001, and she’s received mentions for her astonishing performance. Robin Wright Penn (The Private Lives of Pippa Lee) could also stand out as the more experienced performer playing a multi-actor role. And then there’s the fifteen-year-old Saoirse Ronan (The Lovely Bones), who was nominated in the supporting category for “Atonement” in 2007 and might be able to get a promotion as the lead in Peter Jackson’s forthcoming film if people notice her enough.

Predicted nominees:
ABBIE CORNISH, BRIGHT STAR
PENELOPE CRUZ, BROKEN EMBRACES
HELEN MIRREN, THE LAST STATION
CAREY MULLIGAN, AN EDUCATION
GABOUREY SIDIBE, PRECIOUS