Wednesday Oscar Watch with Abe

Welcome to a new weekly feature here at Movies with Abe, Wednesday Oscar Watch with Abe. It’s a bit early to be able to accurately predict the eventual Oscar nominees, but around this time, plenty of likely contenders are being released. I’ll be looking every Wednesday at the awards chances for all of the films released the previous week. Until I begin my official predictions, I’ll be adding and removing contenders as their popularity, buzz, or reviews rise and fall. Chime in with your thoughts on the Oscar chances for these films in the comments section.

Amelia
This presumed contender has completely devastated its Oscar chances with the almost uniformly terrible, negative reviews it’s received recently. Boasting a Metacritic score (37) lower than Jeremy Piven’s recent bomb “The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard,” it’s pretty much dashed all its Oscar hopes. Star Hilary Swank was presumed to be a lock, and has an impressive record with Oscar nominations, winning both times. Director Mira Nair is a female director to watch, but this won’t be the film that earns her awards. The film could place in cinematography or art direction, but don’t bet it. Sometimes reviews really are just too damning.

Antichrist
Director Lars Von Trier flirted with Oscar in 1996 and 2000 with his acclaimed hits “Breaking the Waves” and “Dancer in the Dark,” respectively, which earned nominations in other categories. His latest film has critics divided, and it seems that many of them fall on the less approving side of the spectrum. Regardless of reviews, the film is likely too violent and objectionable for Oscar voters, and its controversial nature will probably leave it on the bench without any nominations.

Astro Boy
This film belongs to the category of animated movies that don’t stir up much of a fuss and probably won’t become an eventual Oscar nominee. That said, expected locks have been snubbed in past years to make room for surprise inclusions like “Surf’s Up” and “Bolt.” I think there are much bigger candidates this year like “Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs” and “9” and that this film might impress a few voters but won’t make a resounding splash.

Middling to poor reviews won’t help Untitled or Motherhood, neither of which anyone has heard of anyway. The same is true for Thai import Ong Bak 2. Two Halloweentime films, Saw VI and Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant , opened to bad reviews and wouldn’t have been Oscar contenders anyway. As if its parodied sibling “Van Helsing” wasn’t berated enough by critics, the presumably dismal Stan Helsing will only be dismissed even more so, if not ignored altogether.

Be sure to come back next Wednesday for a look at this Friday’s theatrical releases and their Oscar chances. And remember to offer your thoughts on the chances for these films in the comments!