SAG Winner Predictions: Film Categories

After the Golden Globes, I’m pretty convinced that Mickey Rourke, Heath Ledger, and Kate Winslet (for her supporting performance in “The Reader”) are fairly safe to win SAG awards and Oscars. “Milk” bounced back from Globe snubs with lots of guild love and that could be a good thing for star Sean Penn, but the same thing happened to Philip Seymour Hoffman with “Capote” back in 2005 and he still managed to win the Golden Globe as the film’s sole nominee. More importantly, he didn’t have a comeback turn like Rourke’s to compete with. Some say that Richard Jenkins has a shot because this is the awards body that recognizes lifetime achievement like last year with Ruby Dee, but I think that Rourke’s achievement is on par with it in voters’ minds. Ledger takes the cake without question, and Winslet likely beats Penelope Cruz and Viola Davis in a fairly unexciting supporting category. As far as the best actress race is concerned, I think it’s wide open. I doubt Angelina Jolie could win, but Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet are respected veterans, and both Anne Hathaway and Melissa Leo delivered breakout lead performances that should completely erase any previous conceptions of their work. I’d like to bet on a surprise victory by Leo here, though I doubt that it would really happen. Hathaway is probably more likely, and Streep is probably safest. It’s an unpredictable category at this point. Best ensemble is equally puzzling because four of the casts, “Benjamin Button,” “Doubt,” “Frost/Nixon,” and “Milk,” contain many powerhouse actors in both lead and supporting roles. I think that the completely unknown cast of Slumdog Millionaire actually has the best chance to win, given the film’s momentum and the unlikelihood of any of the other films garnering enough support to manage a victory. This award does sometimes go to the cast that best works together, like in 2001 for “Gosford Park” or in 1997 for “The Full Monty.” The fresh ensemble of “Slumdog” is incredibly impressive, though the lack of any big names could lead to a win for…? I don’t even know, maybe “Doubt.”

Note: This year, I won’t be watching the SAG Awards because they’re not being shown in Italy.

Winner predictions:
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Best Actress: Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Best Ensemble: Slumdog Millionaire