I’m saddened to predict a 5/5 match-up between Best Picture and Best Director, especially since the last three times that’s happened was in 1957, 1981, and 2005. It’s also very unexciting. A year like this with impressive directors like Jonathan Demme (Rachel Getting Married), Sam Mendes (Revolutionary Road), Mike Leigh (Happy-Go-Lucky), Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler), Stephen Daldry (The Reader), and Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino & Changeling) makes it even more of a shame that none of them are at all likely to get nominated. Some prognosticators are guessing Andrew Stanton (Wall-E), though I don’t think this is where that film will get recognized. I know it would never happen, but I would be ecstatic if somehow Ari Folman (Waltz with Bashir) got his due for the most creative achievement of the year. Instead I expect the exact DGA list, which includes Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire), David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Gus Van Sant (Milk), Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon), and Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight). I think that, even if “The Dark Knight” falters in the Best Picture field, Nolan is safe here. Howard and Van Sant are probably the most vulnerable for a shocking snub a la Peter Jackson in 2002 for the second “Lord of the Rings” installment. I think Demme is the most likely to take one of their places, although Leigh last did in 2004 (Vera Drake) and could become a regular director-without-picture nominee like Woody Allen. No matter who gets nominated, Boyle is sure to win.
Final predictions:
DANNY BOYLE, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
DAVID FINCHER, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
RON HOWARD, FROST/NIXON
CHRISTOPHER NOLAN, THE DARK KNIGHT
GUS VAN SANT, MILK
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