This year, the supporting categories, in stark contrast to the leading ones, have felt empty and devoid of serious contenders throughout the whole Oscar season. Ralph Fiennes has garnered buzz for two of his performances (The Duchess & The Reader), though neither is terribly strong and I imagine voters will be very much split over which one to vote for, and some might even choose his terrific performance in “In Bruges.” Despite some scene-stealing, Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road) hasn’t been hitting it too big thus far, and unless the film is beloved by Oscar voters, Shannon probably won’t make it in. Even if “Milk” gets a boatload of nominations, including for costar Josh Brolin, I don’t think that this is where James Franco gets his first Oscar nomination for this part. The two locks in this category are Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) and Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt). Though I’m still not sure I can believe it, it sure looks like Robert Downey Jr. will in fact get an Oscar nomination for his preposterous, terrific comic performance in the dismal “Tropic Thunder.” Even if it’s in no way a supporting role, Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire) looks like the guy to take the fifth slot. A 5/5 match-up between the SAG and Oscar lineups is rare, but are there any other contenders? I’m not bold enough to predict it, but look out for Eddie Marsan (Happy-Go-Lucky). He’s a fantastic foil to Sally Hawkins’ nonstop bubble of happiness in Mike Leigh’s wonderfully entertaining film, and he’s racked up a surprisingly high amount of critics’ prizes. It would be truly awesome if that performance got nominated for an Oscar since it’s so not designed as that kind of role. Winner prediction no matter who’s nominated: Ledger.
Final predictions:
JOSH BROLIN, MILK
ROBERT DOWNEY JR, TROPIC THUNDER
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, DOUBT
HEATH LEDGER, THE DARK KNIGHT
DEV PATEL, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
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