SAG Nomination Predictions

The Screen Actors Guild nominations will be announced on Thursday morning, giving awards followers everywhere another chance to see just which films will be frontrunners for the Oscars. This is where "Milk" really needs to succeed to get back into play, and it could easily garner four nominations (Penn, Brolin, Franco, the cast), just like "Into the Wild" last year, recovering from a near-shutout at the Globes, even though it couldn't make it all the way to the Oscars, receiving a measly two nominations. This is an important but not vital opportunity for contenders like Richard Jenkins, Melissa Leo, Michael Shannon and Rosemarie DeWitt to jump on the bandwagon in their respective categories. Sally Hawkins also needs to stay in play here for "Happy-Go-Lucky." Many are predicting an ensemble nomination for the cast of "The Dark Knight," and while it could happen, I don't think it will. To note about the ensemble category: sometimes it just isn't relevant. Last year, "No Country for Old Men" took home the trophy, but it's not like any of its competition - "American Gangster," "Hairspray," "Into the Wild" or "3:10 to Yuma" - had a fighting chance anywhere, and those films ended up with a grand total of six nominations shared among three of them. I'd love to see "Slumdog Millionaire" among the ensemble nominees, but I'm just not sure it will happen. "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" is my sort of out-there pick. We'll see what happens. Commentary on Thursday, though I'll be busy since I'm going to the double-feature showing of "Che."

Predictions:

Best Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
LEONARDO DICAPRIO, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
RICHARD JENKINS, THE VISITOR
FRANK LANGELLA, FROST/NIXON
SEAN PENN, MILK
MICKEY ROURKE, THE WRESTLER

Alt: BRAD PITT, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON

Best Actress in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
ANNE HATHAWAY, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
SALLY HAWKINS, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
MERYL STREEP, DOUBT
KRISTIN SCOTT THOMAS, I’VE LOVED YOU SO LONG
KATE WINSLET, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

Alt: ANGELINA JOLIE, CHANGELING

Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
JOSH BROLIN, MILK
ROBERT DOWNEY JR, TROPIC THUNDER
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, DOUBT
HEATH LEDGER, THE DARK KNIGHT
DEV PATEL, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

Alt: JAMES FRANCO, MILK

Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
AMY ADAMS, DOUBT
PENELOPE CRUZ, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
ROSEMARIE DEWITT, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
MARISA TOMEI, THE WRESTLER
KATE WINSLET, THE READER

Alt: VIOLA DAVIS, DOUBT

Best Ensemble Cast in a Motion Picture
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
DOUBT
FROST/NIXON
MILK
VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA

Alt: REVOLUTIONARY ROAD