My predictions: 3/5, missing Tom Cruise (and Ralph Fiennes for the wrong movie)
Who’s missing? Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road), Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire), Brad Pitt (Burn After Reading), Josh Brolin and James Franco (Milk)
These nominees are all fine and good, with one major exception. Tom Cruise’s bit performance in “Tropic Thunder” is by no means deserving of any recognition at all. It also trivializes Robert Downey Jr.’s chances at a legitimate nomination come Oscar time. Otherwise, Philip Seymour Hoffman, a questionable lead, did make it in, as well as the late Heath Ledger for his terrific performance in “The Dark Knight” (the film’s only nomination).
Update: I made a huge oversight here. Every time I looked at the list of the nominees, my brain told me that Ralph Fiennes had been nominated for "The Reader." I didn't for a second stop to look it after and now I notice that he was in fact nominated for "The Duchess." I've seen all three of his supporting performances this year, and the one that really should have gotten him recognition was of course "In Bruges," which did very well in other categories here. He was pretty good in "The Reader" but I feel that his performance in "The Duchess" was rather flat and not evocative at all. This doesn't bode well for his Oscar chances, since votes will likely be split between "The Duchess" and the clearly popular "The Reader." Interesting indeed. I can't believe I missed that.
Who will win? I don’t think anyone can beat Heath Ledger.
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