The nominees:
RUBY DEE, AMERICAN GANGSTER
SAOIRSE RONAN, ATONEMENT
AMY RYAN, GONE BABY GONE
CATE BLANCHETT, I’M NOT THERE
TILDA SWINTON, MICHAEL CLAYTON
My ballot: 1/5, Ronan
Who should win: Ronan or Blanchett
Who will win: The only person I do not see winning is Ronan. The race was originally between Blanchett and Ryan, but then Dee won the SAG and suddenly her five-minute performance is up for a career tribute Oscar. I refuse to believe that she can win, but I do see the possibility of an upset by Swinton, who has lost out on most major trophies (save the BAFTA recently) and could finally be rewarded. I still go with my gut and say Blanchett.
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