Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

The nominees:
ATONEMENT
JUNO
MICHAEL CLAYTON
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
THERE WILL BE BLOOD

My ballot: 0/5
Who should win: “Juno”, “Atonement”, or “No Country for Old Men”
Who will win: Some quick statistics: no film has won Best Picture in recent years without a Best Director nomination except for “Driving Miss Daisy” in 1989. No film has won Best Picture in recent years without a Best Film Editing nomination since “Ordinary People” in 1980. Those could be two huge handicappers for Atonement and Juno, respectively. Jason Reitman’s directing nomination helps the chances of the latter quite a bit. The expected winner is No Country for Old Men, while There Will Be Blood could mine some last-minute support which rarely works but sort of did for “Million Dollar Baby” (though it failed for “Letters from Iwo Jima”). I am betting that all signs indicate to “No Country” by this point in the telecast but then Juno takes a surprise win.