Final Oscar Winner Predictions

These are my final Oscar Winner Predictions. This is my fifth year making official predictions before the telecast, and in that time, I have only missed the Best Picture winner once, when in 2004 I predicted an upset for "Sideways" over the only slightly surprising "Million Dollar Baby" ("The Aviator" had been favored by many to win). I am most pulling for some really exciting surprises. The 2003 telecast was incredibly boring, and I got all but 4 categories right only because I dared to assume that "The Return of the King" would not win all 11 of its nominations, and that "The Triplets of Belleville" would shock by upsetting "Finding Nemo". It is not that I want to do poorly with my predictions, but rather I would like there to be an exciting telecast.

In terms of last-minute jitters, the Independent Spirit Awards yesterday do little to inform tonight's potential winners. I accidentally missed the telecast, assuming it was at night rather than at 5pm ET, but tuned in just in time to see Ellen Page and "Juno" take home the final awards of the evening, and host Rainn Wilson declare "Philip Seymour Hoffman, prepare to die!" before charging into the audience to tackle one Philip Seymour Hoffman. Regardless, only one Oscar-nominated person/film was present in each category (save for Best Director, where "Juno" helmer Jason Reitman was also nominated) - and they all won. "Juno" for Best Picture, First Screenplay, and Actress; Cate Blanchett for Best Supporting Actress for "I'm Not There", Julian Schnabel for Best Director, and "The Savages" triumphed in Best Screenplay over the adapted (therefore nominated in a different Oscar category) "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly". I did some quick research, and in the twenty-plus-year history of the Independent Spirit Awards, no film that has won Best Picture has gone on to win the corresponding Oscar except for in the second year with "Platoon". In fact, every year, only one eventual Oscar Best Picture nominee has been nominated in any given year and they have all won the award (in 2005, "Brokeback Mountain" beat "Capote" and "Good Night, and Good Luck" but all three lost to the non-ISA-recognized "Crash" at the Oscars). So is this, as some say, the kiss of death? Does this mean that "Juno", Schnabel, Page, and Blanchett have already taken home their trophies and will not win tonight? I am still predicting "Juno" for Best Picture and Blanchett for Best Supporting Actress.

I would be honestly surprised if Schnabel won Best Director mostly because no director has won that award without a corresponding Best Picture nomination since I don't even know when (definitely well before the '70s, if it ever happened). I would sort of love for "Atonement" to win Best Picture because the reverse, where the Best Picture winner is not even nominated for Best Director, is just as rare (though it did happen in 1989 with "Driving Miss Daisy"). All I know is that I am excited for tonight's telecast and have a slight inkling that Tilda Swinton might win Best Supporting Actress, but I will stick with my original prediction. That category can go any way. I am thrilled to see "Falling Slowly" from "Once" performed, as well as all the clips they show every year. I am in the mood for some exciting winners tonight, and I think it should be a great show.

My final predictions:

BEST PICTURE: Juno

BEST DIRECTOR: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men

BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

BEST ACTRESS: Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Diablo Cody, Juno

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men

CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

FILM EDITING: No Country for Old Men

ART DIRECTION: Atonement

COSTUME DESIGN: Atonement

ORIGINAL SCORE: Atonement

ORIGINAL SONG: “Falling Slowly” from Once

SOUND: No Country for Old Men

SOUND EDITING: There Will Be Blood

MAKEUP: La Vie en Rose

VISUAL EFFECTS: Transformers

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: The Counterfeiters

ANIMATED FEATURE: Ratatouille

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Sicko

DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Freeheld

ANIMATED SHORT: I Met the Walrus

LIVE-ACTION SHORT: Tanghi Argentini