Oscar Predictions: The Top Categories

I really do not know. It is so hard to judge the chances for “Atonement”, which has been snubbed by each and every guild save for a warm reception from the Golden Globes. Then I look at last year and realize that “Letters from Iwo Jima” was also shut out by every guild but walked away with a Golden Globe win for Best Foreign Film. And its Oscar mention for Best Picture was considered a surprise, at least by me. Plus all the history and odds concerning the PGA. What is somewhat problematic is that “Michael Clayton” seems completely unstoppable and has no backlash against it (like “Dreamgirls” last year), save from me, though I did read an impressive scathing breakdown of all its plot holes on an IMDB discussion forum. Looking at my list of the top five, “Atonement” is obviously the most vulnerable, but there is also “There Will Be Blood” to consider. “Sweeney Todd” is still a contender, but I do not take that one quite as seriously. This is insanely exciting to have eight viable contenders for Best Picture even right up to nomination day. I think I got all my thoughts out in that PGA post, so there is little more to say. My screenplay predictions remain the same, except for “Atonement” being swapped back in instead of that silly notion I had about “The Kite Runner” (watch it get nominated now). An important thing to remember here is that this race may be far beyond anyone’s wildest dreams: I have completely left out contenders like “Once”, “American Gangster”, “Hairspray”, and “Charlie Wilson’s War”, which believe it or not could make shocking comebacks (in that order of likelihood). Part of me would love to see it, but I am very happy with my predicted five for Best Picture. I may make some last-minute changes on Monday, but otherwise, this is it. Tuesday morning, 8:30am E.T. I, for one, am excited.

Best Picture
ATONEMENT
THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
INTO THE WILD
JUNO
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

Best Director
SIDNEY LUMET, BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU'RE DEAD
JULIAN SCHNABEL, THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
SEAN PENN, INTO THE WILD
THE COEN BROTHERS, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON, THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Best Original Screenplay
BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU'RE DEAD
EASTERN PROMISES
JUNO
MICHAEL CLAYTON
RATATOUILLE

Best Adapted Screenplay
ATONEMENT
THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY
INTO THE WILD
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
THERE WILL BE BLOOD