Satellite Awards Reaction

Not so unexpectedly, my prediction rate was fairly low, at 43% overall, slightly better for the film side of things. I correctly predicted 58 out of 132 nominees, or 42%. I am most proud to say that I got five out of the six documentary nominees (going for “Rape of Europa” instead of the selected “King of Kong”). Additionally, I predicted four out of six of the Best Motion Picture – Drama nominees (I suspected the “Away from Her” love) and the same in the Best Director category. “The Lookout” played an unexpected part in things, garnering five nominations, including one for Best Motion Picture – Drama. Films like “Sweeney Todd” and “Charlie Wilson’s War” were completely shut out, with others like “In the Valley of Elah” and “There Will Be Blood” garnering only one nomination. Supposed comedy/musical stars Laura Linney (“The Savages”) and Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”) were shifted to the drama category, and Cate Blanchett received a promotion to the lead category for “I’m Not There”. “La Vie en Rose” shocked by receiving the most nominations (seven).

When looking at these nominees, it is important to recognize those are truly non-contenders. Tilda Swinton will not be receiving an Oscar nomination for “Stephanie Daley” (I thought I was the only one who saw that). “Shoot ‘Em Up” should not appear on anyone’s predictions for Best Picture come Oscar morning. I will go into the supporting categories in detail but the rest is generally self-explanatory.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Emmanuelle Seigner, "La Vie En Rose" (Picturehouse Entertainment)
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone" (Miramax Films)
Taraji P. Henson "Talk to Me" (Focus Features)
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster" (Universal Pictures)

Emmanuelle Seigner and Taraji P. Henson have pretty much a zero shot at Oscar. The chances for Swinton, Ryan, and Dee should all shoot up as a result of this list (not the guild itself, but rather the fact that people obviously like the performances), despite weak reception for each of their films. Saoirse Ronan is officially the frontrunner for this category, but one should remember that Cate Blanchett will probably end up in this category for “I’m Not There”. The actresses with smaller roles missed out on nominations despite stellar reception for their films (“Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead” and “No Country for Old Men”). And this list does not make it look for the comedy actresses, such as Leslie Mann and Jennifer Garner. I think this list should only match up at most 3/5 with Oscar, but Swinton will likely fall out before nomination day and only Ronan and Ryan will be left in.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jeff Daniels, "The Lookout" (Miramax Films)
Brian Cox, "Zodiac" (Paramount Pictures)
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Ben Foster, "3:10 To Yuma" (Lionsgate)
Javier Bardem, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James" (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Affleck and Bardem should have no problem going the distance, but I am pretty sure Cox’s inclusion is a fluke. Wilkinson has an uphill battle, especially if Tilda Swinton takes most of the attention for “Michael Clayton”. This is a huge resurgence for both Jeff Daniels and Ben Foster, whose films came out long ago but garnered them raves. I doubt either will become a major contender, especially since this list clearly ignores players like Hal Holbrook, Paul Dano, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Ed Harris. Only time will tell.

The rest of the nominees:
ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
Julie Christie, "Away From Her" (Lionsgate)
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart" (Paramount Vantage)
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie En Rose" (Picturehouse Entertainment)
Tilda Swinton, "Stephanie Daley" (Regent Releasing)
Keira Knightley, "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Laura Linney, "The Savages" (Fox Searchlight)

ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
Denzel Washington, "American Gangster" (Universal Pictures)
Josh Brolin, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
Christian Bale, "Rescue Dawn" (MGM)
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"(Roadside Attractions)
Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah" (Warner Independent Pictures)

ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Katherine Heigl, "Knocked Up" (Universal Pictures)
Amy Adams, "Enchanted" (Walt Disney Pictures)
Ellen Page, "Juno" (Fox Searchlight)
Emily Mortimer, "Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
Nicole Kidman, "Margot at the Wedding" (Paramount Vantage)
Cate Blanchett, "I’m Not There" (The Weinstein Company)

ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Richard Gere, "The Hoax" Miramax
Seth Rogen, "Knocked Up" (Universal Pictures)
Ben Kingsley You Kill Me Ifc Films
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
Clive Owen, "Shoot ‘Em Up" (New Line Cinema)
Don Cheadle, "Talk to Me" (Focus Features)

MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
"The Lookout" Miramax
"Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead" (ThinkFilm)
"Away From Her" (Lionsgate)
"Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
"No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
"3:10 To Yuma" (Lionsgate)

MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
"Hairspray" (New Line Cinema)
"Juno"(Fox Searchlight)
"Shoot ‘Em Up" (New Line Cinema)
"Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
"Knocked Up" (Universal Pictures)
"Margot at the Wedding" (Paramount Vantage)

MOTION PICTURE, FOREIGN LANGUAGE
"Ten Canoes" Australia (Palm Pictures)
"Offside Iran" (Sony Pictures Classics)
"La Vie En Rose" France (Picturehouse Entertainment)
"Lust, Caution" China (Focus Features)
"4 Months 3 Weeks & 2 Days" Romania Ifc Films
"The Orphanage" Spain (Picturehouse Entertainment)

MOTION PICTURE, ANIMATED OR MIXED MEDIA
"Persepolis" (Sony Pictures Classics)
"The Simpsons Movie" Twentieth Century Fox
"The Golden" Compass (New Line Cinema)
""Ratatouille"" (Buena Vista Pictures)
"300" Warner Brothers
"Beowulf" (Paramount Pictures)

MOTION PICTURE, DOCUMENTARY
"The King Of Kong" (Picturehouse Entertainment)
"The 11th Hour Warner" (Independent Pictures)
"Sicko" (Lionsgate)
"No End In Sight"(Magnolia Pictures)
"Darfur Now Warner" (Independent Pictures)
"Lake Of Fire" (ThinkFilm)

DIRECTOR:
Ang Lee, "Lust, Caution" (Focus Features)
Olivier Dahan, "La Vie En Rose" (Picture House Entertainment)
David Cronenberg, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
Sidney Lumet, "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" (ThinkFilm)
Sarah Polley, "Away From Her" (Lionsgate)

SCREENPLAY, ORIGINAL
Scott Frank, "The Lookout" (Miramax Films)
Diablo Cody, "Juno" (Fox Searchlight)
Kelly Masterson, "Before the Devil Knows You’Re Dead" (ThinkFilm)
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Nancy Oliver,"Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
Steven Knight, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)

SCREENPLAY, ADAPTED
James Vanderbilt, "Zodiac" (Paramount Pictures)
Christopher Hampton "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
David Benioff, "The Kite Runner" (Paramount Vantage)
Sarah Polley,"Away From Her" (Lionsgate)
Wang Hui Ling, James Schamus,"Lust, Caution" (Focus Features)

ORIGINAL SCORE
Dario Marianelli, "Atonement" (Focus Features)
James Newton Howard, "The Lookout" (Miramax Films)
Michael Giacchino, "Ratatouille" (Buena Vista Pictures)
Alberto Iglesias, "The Kite Runner" (Paramount Vantage)
Howard Shore, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
Nick Cave, "The Assassination of Jesse James" (Warner Bros. Pictures)

ORIGINAL SONG
"Do You Feel Me"/Diane Warren, "American Gangster" (Universal Pictures)
"If You Want Me"/Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova, "Once" (Fox Searchlight)
"Come So Far"/Marc Shaiman, "Hairspray" (New Line Cinema)
"Rise"/Eddie Vedder, "Into The Wild" (Paramount Vantage)
"Grace Is Gone"/Clint Eastwood & Carole Bayer Sager, "Grace Is Gone" (The Weinstein Company)
"Lyra"/Kate Bush, "The Golden Compass" (New Line Cinema)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Harris Savides, "Zodiac" (Paramount Pictures)
Robert Elswit, "There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage)
Bruno Delbonnel, "Across The Universe" (Revolution Studios)
Janusz Kaminski, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Miramax Films)
Roger Deakins, "The Assassination Of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Henry Braham, "The Golden Compass" (New Line Cinema)

VISUAL EFFECTS
Scott Farrar, "Transformers" (Paramount Pictures)
Michael Fink, "The Golden Compass" (New Line Cinema)
Chris Watts, Grant Freckelton, Derek Wentworth, Daniel Leduc, "300" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Peter Chiang, Charlie Noble, David Vickery, Mattias Lindahl, "The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal Pictures)
Thomas Schelesny, Matt Jacobs, Tom Gibbons, "Enchanted" (Walt Disney Pictures)
Jerome Chen, Sean Phillips, Kenn Mc Donald, Michael Lantieri, "Beowulf" (Paramount Pictures)

FILM EDITING
Pietro Scalia, "American Gangster" (Universal Pictures)
Jill Savitt, "The Lookout" (Miramax)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax)
Richard Marizy, "La Vie En Rose" (Picturehouse Entertainment)
Christopher Rouse, "The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal Pictures)
Ronald Sanders, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)

SOUND (EDITING & MIXING)
Mike Prestwood-Smith, Mark Taylor, Glenn Freemantle, "The Golden Compass" (New Line Cinema)
Nikolas Javelle, Jean-Paul Hurier, "La Vie En Rose" (Picturehouse Entertainment)
Christopher Boyes, Paul Massey, Lee Orloff, George Watters II, "Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World’S End" (Buena Vista Pictures)
Scott Heckler, Eric Norris, Derek Vanderhorst, "300" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Karen Baker Landers, Kirk Francis, Per Hallberg, "The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal Pictures)
Tod Maitland, Skip Lievsay, Rick Kline, Jeremy Peirson, "I Am Legend" (Warner Bros. Pictures)

ART DIRECTION & PRODUCTION DESIGN
Guy Dyas, David Allday, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Universal Pictures)
Patricia Norris, Martin Gendron, Troy Sizemore, "The Assassination Of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Dennis Davenport, David Gropman, "Hairspray" (New Line Cinema)
Mark Tildesley, "Sunshine" (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Gary Freeman, Stephen Morahan, Denis Schnegg, David Allday, Matthew Gray, Charles Wood, "Amazing Grace" (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
Mark Friedberg, Peter Rogness, "Across the Universe" (Revolution Studios)

COSTUME DESIGN
Alexandra Byrne, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Universal Pictures)
Yvonne Blake, "Goya’s Ghosts" (Samuel Goldwyn Pictures)
Marit Allen, "La Vie En Rose" (Picturehouse Entertainment)
Rita Ryack, "Hairspray" (New Line Cinema)
Jenny Beavan, "Amazing Grace" (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
Jacqueline Durran, "Antonement" (Focus Features)