The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Golden Globe contenders for the given category. Predictions will be narrowed and revised towards the end of November or the beginning of December. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is way to early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.
The top contenders:
RIDLEY SCOTT, AMERICAN GANGSTER
This all depends on how “American Gangster” is received. Besides “Gladiator”, Scott has earned two Oscar nominations for films that were not nominated for Best Picture. The same is not true at the Globes. Scott has only one nomination, for “Gladiator” and might find himself stuck with that statistic after this year.
ANDREW DOMINICK, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
I think that people may be underestimating this one. I personally think it will show up for Best Picture, but not here. Dominick has only one other film credit to his name, so this could be a spot where he first makes his mark.
JOE WRIGHT, ATONEMENT
Wright is all but assured a placement here. If for some reason the film backfires at the last minute, Wright’s lack of extensive credits could hurt him, but I think he is safe.
MIKE NICHOLS, CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
This one is still looking pretty strong. Nichols was nominated last time one of his films started off with great praise but ultimately bit the bullet with awards (“Closer”). This category encompasses both comedy and drama, so voters do not have to decide which one his film is.
DAVID CRONENBERG, EASTERN PROMISES
Cronenberg has been ignored time and time again throughout his career. Two years ago, his film received a Best Picture mention but he missed out in this category to a barrage of famous directors (Woody Allen, Peter Jackson, Steven Spielberg). Can he make it in this time or have people forgotten the film?
PAUL HAGGIS, IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
I think this is the real underdog to watch, but that does not mean it will show up strong at the Globes. “Crash” managed only two nominations (one for supporting actor Matt Dillon, one for Screenplay) before going on to win the Oscar for Best Picture. Still, Haggis is quite popular these days.
SEAN PENN, INTO THE WILD
I still cannot tell whether critics liked this one, but I know I did. Penn has amassed four acting nominations, and if his film is popular enough, should earn a fifth one in this category.
THE COEN BROTHERS, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
After seeing this one, I am fairly confident in predicting it. The film should do really well with critics and awards alike. Even the Coen Brothers’ less-noticed “The Man Who Wasn’t There” earned a Globe nod for Best Picture. Enough said.
TIM BURTON, SWEENEY TODD
Burton has yet to crack his way into this category despite a couple of his films being nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical (“Big Fish”, “Ed Wood”). Burton and Depp together should be an irresistible combination for Globe voters, though comedies always have a hard time in this category.
PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON, THERE WILL BE BLOOD
I am reconsidering my initial evaluation of this film’s chances. I think it may do better than I originally thought. In the past, P.T. Anderson’s films have only earned nominations for performers at the Globes (Adam Sandler, Tom Cruise, Burt Reynolds, Julianne Moore). Daniel Day-Lewis is almost certain to make it in, but can Anderson?
Anyone else? “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead” is earning Sidney Lumet positive marks. I could not hope to tell you if Todd Haynes realistically has a chance for his bizarre Bob Dylan movie “I’m Not There”. If “Michael Clayton” does well in other categories, look for Tony Gilroy’s name here. Both Marc Forster and Ang Lee could get nominated for their foreign-language entries “The Kite Runner” and “Lust, Caution”. Comedies and musicals are a tough sell, but “Juno” and “Once” may be popular enough to allow Jason Reitman and John Carney to slide in. The late Adrienne Shelly did a remarkable job with “Waitress”, but it came out so long ago. And don’t count out Ben Affleck for “Gone Baby Gone”.
Current predictions:
JOE WRIGHT, ATONEMENT
MIKE NICHOLS, CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
DAVID CRONENBERG, EASTERN PROMISES
THE COEN BROTHERS, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
TIM BURTON, SWEENEY TODD
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