Golden Globe Musings: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Golden Globe contenders for the given category. Predictions will be narrowed and revised towards the end of November or the beginning of December. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is way to early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

The top contenders:
AMY ADAMS, ENCHANTED
This looks like a surefire flop but you never know. Adams got an Oscar nod two years ago for “Junebug” and she will certainly do a good job with this role; it is just a matter of whether this is an awards type of film.

NIKKI BLONSKY, HAIRSPRAY
The bright-eyed and jolly star of this year’s most colorful musical certainly works hard to deliver her performance. She is young, however, and compared with some of the eligible actresses (Nicole Kidman, Helena Bonham Carter, Laura Linney), she might seem too new. But this may well be the year of young actresses (continue reading below).

ELLEN PAGE, JUNO
The breakout star of last year’s extremely dark “Hard Cardy” now stars in what looks to be this year’s best comedy. Page has all the buzz on her side, and I think only her age and the small size of the film could get in her way.

KATHERINE HEIGL, KNOCKED UP
Heigl won an Emmy for her role on “Grey’s Anatomy”, and she is a hell of a lot better in this film. Golden Globe voters have rejected previous Judd Apatow efforts and their performers, but “Knocked Up” should find itself an awards hit.

NICOLE KIDMAN, MARGOT AT THE WEDDING
Kidman has been absent for a few years now from the awards spotlight (though I did predict her last year as a nominee for “Fur”). Globe voters responded well to “Savages” director Baumbach’s previous film, “The Squid and the Whale”.

MARKETA IRGLOVA, ONCE
I did not actually like her that much in the film, but her singing is fine, which is the important part for musicals and their stars at least for the Globes (Beyoncé for “Dreamgirls”, for instance). I still cannot gauge how popular “Once” will be here or whether it will simply surge later, but Irglova may sneak in.

LAURA LINNEY, THE SAVAGES
Linney is a three-time Globe nominee and respected actress who should have no trouble making it in. The film looks great and Linney should be fantastic as well.

HELENA BONHAM CARTER, SWEENEY TODD
I am not positive this is a lead role, but from the looks of the trailer, it is definitely an amazing one. Carter only has one film nomination from the Globes (“The Wings of the Dove”) in addition to three TV-movie nods. I imagine this film being a huge hit and Carter being a shoo-in for a nomination.

MARION COTILLARD, LA VIE EN ROSE
This is probably where Cotillard will end up being placed and presumably win this award.

KERI RUSSELL, WAITRESS
I have never been a huge Keri Russell fan but I will admit that I very much enjoyed her performance as a desolate housewife slash pie maker. The film is great, which is an added bonus. Russell did win a Golden Globe for the first season of “Felicity” back in 1998.

Anyone else? Probably, but the field is slim at this juncture. The only other contenders I can think of have very slim chances. I am not positive if Anne Hathaway places in the drama category for “Becoming Jane”. A similar problem exists for Michelle Pfeiffer, who really is supporting but might be pushed as lead for either “Hairspray” or “Stardust”. Evan Rachel Wood is a lead actress but not really the star in “Across the Universe”. And I do not know if anyone liked “The Nanny Diaries” enough to vote for Scarlett Johansson.

(I know I am sort of cheating predicting Cotillard in two categories, but I think she will ultimately end up here).

Current predictions:
ELLEN PAGE, JUNO
KATHERINE HEIGL, KNOCKED UP
LAURA LINNEY, THE SAVAGES
HELENA BONHAM CARTER, SWEENEY TODD
MARION COTILLARD, LA VIE EN ROSE
alternate: KERI RUSSELL, WAITRESS (if Cotillard ineligible)