The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Golden Globe contenders for the given category. Predictions will be narrowed and revised towards the end of November or the beginning of December. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is way to early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point. Nominees in this category come from drama, comedy, and musical motion pictures.
The top contenders:
RUSSELL CROWE, AMERICAN GANGSTER
After seeing this film, I feel that Crowe has very little chance at getting a nomination. Crowe’s performance is not terribly good and he does not give it much effort. The film may be popular, and Crowe has received five nominations since 1999, not a bad tally.
CASEY AFFLECK, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
This is really Casey Affleck’s year. Stepping out of the shadow both of his brother Ben (director of his other film, “Gone Baby Gone”) and his co-star Brad Pitt, Affleck delivers a tremendous performance as the “coward” Robert Ford. The film is a western, a genre that does not always play well with the Globes, but I think Affleck is honestly among the best of the year without much contest.
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, CHARLIE WILSON’S WARSure, Hoffman is a revered actor with two other major roles this year, but have you seen the preview for this? I am sure he is fine, but this is no award-worthy role. This may not be true within the context of the actual film, and the Globes went wild for Mike Nichols’ last film, “Closer”, giving trophies to both supporting actors Clive Owen and Natalie Portman, even when other award-givers shunned the film. Hoffman may simply jump on the bandwagon – and he might be really good. Who knows at this point?
ARMIN MUELLER-STAHL, EASTERN PROMISES
This is one performer that I think awards gurus have been seriously underestimating. Mueller-Stahl delivers a powerful performance as a subtle but controlling Russian mob boss. His role may be small, but the film might also do well with the Globes.
ED HARRIS, GONE BABY GONEThe stakes are not the same here as they are at the Oscars – many are saying that Harris will finally pick up his long overdue Academy Award for his excellent turn in this film. The Globes do not carry this same “overdue” prospect, not to mention the fact that Harris did win a Globe in 1998 for “The Truman Show”. Harris’ role in “Gone Baby Gone” is fairly small but he is terrific. I am not sure if the film will play into awards season, though.
HAL HOLBROOK, INTO THE WILD
Now this is one performance you have to love. As a kind but lonely man who befriends the young adventurer played by Emile Hirsch, Holbrook creates a sympathetic and tremendously likeable character. His screen time is short and the film is not a shoo-in for any other awards, so he may go unnoticed.
TOM WILKINSON, MICHAEL CLAYTON
I am a fan of Wilkinson, but this is not his best performance. The character is juicy to be sure but Wilkinson is not afforded the chance to excel. He missed out on a nomination for “In the Bedroom” back in 2001 despite enthusiasm for the film and its other stars. I still stand by my contention that “Michael Clayton” will not factor into any awards race this season.
JAVIER BARDEM, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MENBardem should be considered the only lock for this category at this point. A two-time Globe nominee for “Before Night Falls” and “The Sea Inside”, Bardem switches to the supporting category for his role as a violent killer in the Coen Brothers’ latest film. Nothing in my mind can stop Bardem from gaining a nomination and probably a win.
ALAN RICKMAN, SWEENEY TODD
Rickman is one actor who is deserving of many awards but rarely rewarded for his work. He looks to be great in “Sweeney Todd” but it is too early to tell at this point, since his role might be small like past performances which got early buzz (Dustin Hoffman in “Finding Neverland”, Kim Dickens in “House of Sand and Fog”).
PAUL DANO, THERE WILL BE BLOODThe film looks great, and Dano shares most of his scenes with Daniel Day-Lewis. Pitting the young Dano against the established Day-Lewis should be good for Dano since he proved he can act with his under-rewarded role in “Little Miss Sunshine” last year. I think the film is getting more buzz than it will follow up on, and Day-Lewis may be the film’s lone nominee.
Anyone else? “Gone Baby Gone” features another older actor who continues to make great films. Morgan Freeman is good but his role is too small. Philip Bosco is rumored to be a contender for his role as the dying father in “The Savages”. Max von Sydow may also factor into the race for his performance in “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”. Some are predicting Mark Ruffalo for “Reservation Road”, but based on reviews I think the film will sit out the awards race. Go back a few months and you have four actors whose performances should have faded from people’s minds but may see a resurgence. Jeff Daniels is funny in “The Lookout” and critics raved back in March when it opened. Gordon Pinsent has more of a leading role opposite Julie Christie in “Away from Her” and she will take most of the buzz anyway. Steve Zahn was surprisingly good in “Rescue Dawn”, but has no chance unless co-star Christian Bale gets a nomination. I, for one, would support a nomination for Irrfan Khan in “A Mighty Heart”, but I think the positive reviews of his performance will pale in comparison to the lackluster box office reception of the film.
Current predictions:
CASEY AFFLECK, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
ED HARRIS, GONE BABY GONE
HAL HOLBROOK, INTO THE WILD
JAVIER BARDEM, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
ALAN RICKMAN, SWEENEY TODD
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