The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Golden Globe contenders for the given category. Predictions will be narrowed and revised towards the end of November or the beginning of December. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is way to early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.
The top contenders:
DENZEL WASHINGTON, AMERICAN GANGSTER
He is one hell of a popular actor in a film that should have been awesome. Unfortunately, the film is not great and he is not spectacular either. Buzz alone may keep him here, and reception to the film may be different than I am predicting.
BRAD PITT, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
The performance earned raves, as did the film. The Globes should be good for Pitt; the Oscars are another story. His chances may depend on the recognition for the film and his equally good co-star, Casey Affleck.
JAMES McAVOY, ATONEMENT
After his role last year in “The Last King of Scotland” opposite Forest Whitaker, McAvoy has been on the fast track. This film is supposed to be amazing, and I have little doubt that McAvoy is stellar and that he will deservedly ride along with the film’s popularity to a nomination.
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU’RE DEAD
Hoffman is a busy man this year, with a supporting role in “Charlie Wilson’s War” and a lead role in the comedy “The Savages”. Hoffman is certainly good in this film, but I think the role ultimately lacks the power required to bump out someone else.
TOM HANKS, CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
It has been a while since we have heard from this guy. Hanks missed out on dual nominations in 2002 for playing against type in “Road to Perdition” and “Catch Me If You Can”. His performance here makes it look like he is just having the time of his life. Hanks has received many nominations from the Globes, and unless the film tanks, he should be fine. Detriment or added edge? The film opens after nominations come out.
VIGGO MORTENSEN, EASTERN PROMISES
It is also tough to determine how David Cronenberg will be received awards-wise. His last feature, “A History of Violence”, elicited nominations for Best Motion Picture and actress Maria Bello. Mortensen was snubbed for his work in that film, but he really loses himself in the role in “Eastern Promises” in a good way.
CASEY AFFLECK, GONE BABY GONE
I honestly think this film will not pick up the needed traction and buzz to get recognized by any awards association, but it deserves to. Affleck is quite good in a subtle performance, but his work here may be overshadowed by his unbelievable supporting role in “The Assassination of Jesse James”. The Globes are kind to actors with two roles in the same year, but Affleck may sit out this category.
TOMMY LEE JONES, IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
Jones is really good in this film, and he is an established and respected actor. Paul Haggis’ last feature, “Crash”, received only a few nominations from the Globes before going on to win the Oscar for Best Picture, but actor Matt Dillon made it in. Jones’ performance is also the best thing about the film, which helps.
GEORGE CLOONEY, MICHAEL CLAYTON
Clooney won two years ago in the supporting category for “Syriana”. I am not quite sure how “Michael Clayton” will play out with awards. I think it will be absent, but do not want to take any chances. Clooney could easily slide in here.
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, THERE WILL BE BLOOD
This is another actor who really has not been around for a while with a major role in a film by a great director. Five years ago, Day-Lewis was nominated for “Gangs of New York” but lost out to Jack Nicholson. Day-Lewis will definitely find himself here again, and seems the clear frontrunner barring an upset by McAvoy or Pitt.
Anyone else? Everyone else at this point. Emile Hirsch comes closest to making it into the top ten for his lead role in “Into the Wild”, but he is too young in my mind to be considered among this crowd. I do not see John Cusack being nominated for his dramatic performance in “Grace is Gone” but he is an actor who has really never been recognized (save for a comedy nod for “High Fidelity” in 2000), so he may be seen as overdue. Tommy Lee Jones could be recognized twice, the second time being for “No Country for Old Men”, but I feel like he will be overshadowed by his supporting co-star, Javier Bardem, who also stars in “Love in the Time of Cholera”, which, if it is a success, he give Bardem another nomination in this category. Christian Bale starred in “Rescue Dawn” a long time ago and picked up a good deal of buzz, but I think that is pretty much gone. Adam Sandler was probably never a contender for “Reign Over Me”. Russell Crowe for “3:10 to Yuma”? Please no.
Current predictions:
BRAD PITT, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
JAMES McAVOY, ATONEMENT
TOM HANKS, CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR
TOMMY LEE JONES, IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, THERE WILL BE BLOOD
Next: Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
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