Golden Globe Musings: Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama

Golden Globe Musings: Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama

The following represents some preliminary thoughts on Golden Globe contenders for the given category. Predictions will be narrowed and revised towards the end of November or the beginning of December. A reminder that the Globes are wildly unpredictable and that it is way to early to gauge the reception or awards potential of a number of the so-called “contenders” at this point.

The top contenders:
KEIRA KNIGHTLEY, ATONEMENT
Festival audiences have deemed “Atonement” to be already a classic. Knightley received Globe and Oscar nominations for far less dramatic or challenging work in “Pride & Prejudice” two years ago, and this is one of those films that should still do well enough on advance word regardless of how the film is received when it reaches wide audiences.

JULIE CHRISTIE, AWAY FROM HER
Christie received overwhelmingly positive reviews for her role as an Alzheimer’s patient separated from her husband for the first time. The movie came out a while ago, but her performance should be memorable enough.

JODIE FOSTER, THE BRAVE ONE
This does not feel anything like an awards-worthy performance, but Foster was big back in the day. The poor reception for the film should signal that Foster would be out in any other year, but this seems like a fairly bare-bones, seven-or-so contenders year.

NAOMI WATTS, EASTERN PROMISES
Watts is a terrific actress who has never been recognized by the Globes despite raves for “Mulholland Drive” and an Oscar nod for “21 Grams”. “Eastern Promises” is by no means her best performance, but that is not a bad thing. Director David Cronenberg’s last film garnered its lead actress a placement here; can “Eastern Promises” do the same for Watts?

CATE BLANCHETT, ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
Blanchett won for this very role nine years ago. Sequels rarely fare well with awards, but both Johnny Depp (“Pirates of the Caribbean”) and Renée Zellweger (“Bridget Jones”) received nominations for repeat performances in the underwhelming sequels.

CHARLIE THERON, IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
It is up for debate whether this is a lead or a supporting performance. Theron certainly holds her own against Tommy Lee Jones and gives more than the role really calls for. The only reason Theron would show up here is as a filler.

TANG WEI, LUST, CAUTION
This is quite the impressive debut for Wei. Ang Lee is a revered director who was won multiple Golden Globes, but his foreign stars do not usually play well with the Globes. Foreign-language performances are tough to get nominated, but with the lack of many other contenders, Wei might have a shot.

ANGELINA JOLIE, A MIGHTY HEART
It came and went without much time in theatres, but Jolie did earn positive reviews for her portrayal of Mariane Pearl, the wife of a kidnapped journalist. If voters’ memory does not stretch back to early summer, Jolie is out of luck, but I suspect she will make a surprise appearance, à la Ben Affleck last year for “Hollywoodland”, who was predicted by everyone early on, then dropped, but ultimately showed up in the supporting category at the Globes.

HALLE BERRY, THINGS WE LOST IN THE FIRE
Berry’s Golden Globe nod and Oscar win for “Monster’s Ball” in 2001 was probably a one-shot deal. Berry has not been anywhere near awards radar anytime since then, and co-star Benicio Del Toro will probably get more attention for “Things We Lost in the Fire”.

MARION COTILLARD, LA VIE EN ROSE
Cotillard is an absolute lock, but is this a comedy or a drama? She pretends to sing a whole lot, but this is a dramatic film.

Anyone else? Not many at this point. Giovanna Mezzogiorno has been recognized a number of times in Italy, but her performance in “Love in the Time of Cholera” may not translate as well for audiences. Reese Witherspoon won a Globe two years ago, but her performance in “Rendition” did not receive anywhere near the same raves as for “Walk the Line”. Marcia Gay Harden stars in Allison Eastwood’s “Rails & Ties”, but the film is likely not to reach a large audience. Uma Thurman could be a contender for “In Bloom”, but there has been zero buzz for that film. Ashley Judd got great reviews for the psychological horror film “Bug” in early summer, and she did get a surprise nod a few years ago for “De-Lovely”. Sigourney Weaver had a baity role in “Snow Cake”, but honestly, I think I was the only one who saw that.

Current predictions:
KEIRA KNIGHTLEY, ATONEMENT
JULIE CHRISTIE, AWAY FROM HER
CATE BLANCHETT, ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
ANGELINA JOLIE, A MIGHTY HEART
MARION COTILLARD, LA VIE EN ROSE
alternate: NAOMI WATTS, EASTERN PROMISES (if Cotillard ineligible)